Senior Manager Forecasting Analytics

## About the Role Aura's Revenue Organization is building a world-class analytics function to drive forecast accuracy, smarter marketing investment, and growth across our retail and e-commerce channels. As Senior Manager of Revenue Forecasting & Analytics, you'll turn historical and real-time sell-through, marketing, and channel data into the demand forecasts and analytical insight that help the business put the right products in the right markets - and spend marketing dollars where they actually drive profitable demand. You'll work at the intersection of forecasting, marketing analytics, business intelligence, and cross-functional decision-making to build the revenue analytics function that supports Aura's growth across North America, Europe, and expanding international markets. ## Our Story Aura was founded by two early Twitter software engineers who wanted to take what they knew about social connections and create a way for families to come together around their best memories. The combination of seamless sharing across a smartphone app and a beautiful digital frame resonated, and Aura is now used by millions of families with more than 1 billion photos shared in 2025 alone. What is known as the best digital picture frame by Wirecutter has always been about something more ambitious: a private, trusted platform for connection with your close loved ones. Aura is now available in thousands of leading retail stores across North America and Europe. ## Role Description Reporting directly to the CRO, you'll combine statistical forecasting, SQL-based business intelligence, and marketing analytics to improve forecast accuracy, connect marketing spend to demand, and enable data-driven decisions across the revenue org. This is an analyst role at heart: you'll live in the data, build the models and views the team relies on, and translate them into clear recommendations - not run a formal S&OP function. If you're energized by forecasting, marketing analytics, and turning messy data into decisions that move the business, this is a chance to make a meaningful contribution to Aura's continued growth. ## What You'll Do ### Forecasting & Accuracy - Build and maintain rolling revenue forecasts at the SKU / channel / geography level across Aura's portfolio, using SQL-based data and statistical methods - Refresh forecasts on a regular cadence and ahead of major launches, promotions, and peak periods, incorporating POS, sell-through, marketing performance, and inventory signals - Track forecast accuracy (MAPE, bias, WAPE) at the SKU / channel / week grain, set internal accuracy targets, and continuously refine methodology - Use statistical forecasting techniques to generate baselines and identify opportunities for model improvement ### Marketing & Channel Analytics - Analyze channel-level acquisition economics (CPA/CAC, payback) and surface where spend is - and isn't - driving profitable demand - Quantify the demand impact of campaigns, promotions, and launches, and fold those signals into the forecast rather than treating them as noise - Partner with Marketing to pressure-test attribution and channel-mix assumptions against actual sell-through, and support incrementality / holdout testing where it matters - Maintain the link between marketing spend, demand signal, and forecast as a repeatable input, not a one-off analysis ### Business Insight & Decision Support - Review and validate forecasts in collaboration with Sales, Marketing, and Product, ensuring alignment with product launches, promotional calendars, and market trends - Prepare executive-ready analysis explaining forecasts, variances, channel efficiency, and recommendations, and provide regular updates to the CRO and Revenue Leadership team - Champion automation and process improvements that make the team's reporting and analysis faster and more reliable ## What You Bring ### Required - Bachelor's degree in Business, Statistics, Economics, Data Science, Marketing, or a related field - 5–7+ years in revenue/marketing analytics, forecasting, business intelligence, or a comparable analytical role - ideally in consumer goods, consumer electronics, or DTC/e-commerce - Demonstrated ownership of a forecast or analytical model across multiple channels, with a track record of measurable accuracy or business impact - Expert-level proficiency in Excel or Google Sheets (advanced functions, pivot tables, data modeling, large dataset manipulation) - Working proficiency in SQL - comfortable querying source systems and BI tools (Metabase, Looker, Snowflake, BigQuery, or similar) without depending on an analyst - Comfort working with marketing performance and channel-economics data (CPA/CAC, ROAS) as analytical and forecast inputs - Strong analytical judgment with attention to detail and the ability to translate data into clear, actionable business recommendations - Excellent communication skills, with the ability to present complex analyses clearly to both technical and non-technical audiences, including executive leadership - Proactive problem-solver who thrives in a fast-paced, entrepreneurial environment with shifting priorities ### Preferred - Experience with marketing-mix modeling or attribution analysis, incrementality / holdout testing, or channel-efficiency modeling - Familiarity with marketing data sources (GA4, ad platforms, Klaviyo, or attribution tools) - Knowledge of statistical forecasting methods and time-series analysis - Basic programming, scripting, or vibe-coding skills (Python, R, Claude Code) for data analysis and forecasting - Experience with data visualization and analytics tools (e.g., Tableau, Power BI, Looker) in addition to Metabase - Multi-market / international analytics experience - Consumer electronics or hardware industry experience ## What We Offer Because You Matter: We believe in creating a happy and supportive work environment, so you can both excel at your job and actually enjoy coming into work each day. Compensation for this role will be in the $140,000 - $